Well, I guess we'll find out in the autopsy.

I've been in touch with the DA's office every day.

Cause coronary thrombosis, acute.

Let's assume the probability of the test coming out positive given that we don't have this cancer is 0.2.

And unlike the previous option, it's also easy to go through the keywords.

The perception of beauty is a moral test.

Now comes the hard part

Mri showed your brain was clear.

Now, what's my probability having cancer or not? But now all the positives in here become negatives.

Now, what's remarkable about this outcome is really what it means.

In our cancer example, we know that the prior probability of cancer is 0.01, which is the same as 1 .

Specifically, the joint probabilities.

The probability of a positive test and having cancer.

R3, have you verified those coordinates on the search grid?

You can check.

Check

Inspection?

Analyze.

And, yes, the answer is 0.108.

So, the test really helped us gaining confidence that we are cancer free.

Now let me ask you a really tricky question.

Let's go the cancer example. These are prior probability of cancer we should call P₀.

On August 14th and 15th, they took a stool sample, and by the 25th of August, it was confirmed he had Type 1 polio.

Some kind of backdoor brain surgery.

We can tell with absolute certainty that the person has cancer, and we can determine what the outcome of the test is.

Now, let's do one last modification and let's write this procedure assuming you observed a negative test result.

Can I look at the fast?

File System Lint

I know you are clean... Oh, I... no, I... I've got tests...

(Laughter)

Just to check suppose probability of cancer is 0.1, the sensitivity is 0.9, specificity is 0.8.

In this example, we again might have our unobservable cancer C, but now we're running 2 tests, test 1 and test 2.

His blood is clean, he's not using.

We are getting unconfirmed reports that this might be

You should check the spelling of your search words.

The autopsy data confirms what we already knew.

That means that is not giving any false positives or any false negatives.

The test has to be wrong.

Which is the test they're going to run that will tell us whether or not Caster Semenya is male or female?

You can search terms in English or in your language.

Perhaps a closer inspection will tell us something.

I've just been shown this great new intelligence test.

Your circuits are loose.

Let's assume there's a test for this cancer, which gives us probabilistically an answer whether we have this cancer or not.

So, for this one, we want to apply total probability.