But so, can anyone guess what's going on here?

Nothing ever happens out of thin air.

What about causality?

Unfortunately, it's not, because I would like to be taller, but I'm not.

And Ha ha, there is a picture and here is I. And what does it matter?

And then the idea of confounds. And the most important concept to take away from this segment is the idea of causality.

Random representative sampling, independent and dependent variables, double blind, single blind experiments, confounds and causality.

That we could create a classification of the mental illnesses.

And they can do it because they don't link causation and correlation.

And in fact, the sickness did cause you to die, and also effected your decision of whether you go to a hospital or not.

The why meant really,

The left hand always is the same and puts sinusoidal tickle.

The problem is that these observational studies.

Indeed, some writers do not think the relation of brain to consciousness is a causal relation in the first place.

Because unlike polio, we couldn't get right to the heart of the matter.

If this sounds complicated, we haven't seen much.

The data came back from the United States, from England, from Sweden, from Canada, and it was all the same no correlation, no connection, none at all.

I think we can presume that their relationship had soured somewhat.

And that's one of the examples I'll show you when we do this in R.

And here it's really easy to see that there is something wrong, but jumping to an incorrect conclusion about causality when you see a correlation is the most often made logical mistake.

You would think later that the ball is the cause for the window to break.

And of course, others using more sophisticated methods in the literature have controlled for poverty and education and so on.

And what I want for today is for you to remember that the next time someone wants to prove that there is a causal relation between something and something else it can be anything, it can be vaccines and autism, it can be female bankers and the financial crisis, and if they (Laughter) point out to you that there is a very strong relation, remember that it's not enough to have a correlation.

It had to do with what caused all this.

I, I'm gonna start drawing these path models in the next segment with, with arrows that typically depict causality.

Now, we're about to publish the first study

So, you could test that using structural equation modeling.

And indeed, people know the causal links quite well in some of these outcomes.

There are single headed arrows or double headed arrows.

You know, creation is what put that dog in that picture, and creativity is what makes us see a chicken on his hindquarters.

It's because we know there's something about fire and firefighters.

Something about why Freddie was sacked, but I can't get a straight answer from either of them.

Again, we're talking about outliers there's got to be some kind of cause and effect.

Obviously, we want to understand the structure of intelligence.

These two factors are independent of each other.

Causality is one of the most disputed subject in Philosophy.

One great thing about Bayes nets is that we're not restricted to going only in one direction.

All the best employees in my firm are actually women who work on their limited schedules.

But the researchers, they were smart, and they wrote very careful that they had found a correlation, and they didn't know how the causal relation might work, but just to be sure they advised all parents to turn off the lights at night.

Common causes of stress are work and human relationships.

This leads to sort of classic line that you've probably heard before, is correlation does not imply causation.

Which again, this isn't a true independent variable so we can't really make a causal statement.

Causality.

Another link in the chain.

So we call it a relational universe.